EBRD projects slight drop of Belarus’ GDP in 2023

May 16, BPN. Belarus’ GDP is expected to drop by one percent in 2023, says the recent Regional Economic Prospects forecast by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

Western sanctions resulting from Belarus’ close cooperation with Russia “constrained business activity and limited export opportunities,” the analysts said, noting that the 4.7 percent GDP drop in 2022 was “broad-based.”

The EBRD linked the contraction of investment and net exports to uncertainties resulting from Russia’s war on Ukraine and export and financing restrictions.

It noted a decline in annualized inflation to six percent in March as a result of price controls and “a strong base effect.”

Belarus’ economy been adapting to a restrictive external environment, and its decline could slow down to 2.1 percent from January to March, the analysts said.

The EBRD is expecting “a modest recovery in 2024, with growth of 1.3 percent, subject to significant downside risks.”