October 25, Pozirk. Belarus’ gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to fall from the projected 3.9 percent in 2023 to 1.6 percent in 2024, says the recent macroeconomic forecast by the BEROC think tank.
New supply chains and the government’s support for economic entities will not prevent the slowdown, it noted.
The analysts linked optimistic GDP expectations for 2023 to “excessively lax economic policy and support from Russia,” but stressed that loose monetary and fiscal policies are fraught with high inflation. As a result, demand is expected to decline considerably, relying on imports rather than domestically manufactured goods, if the government does not impose restrictions, the report noted.
Consumer activities will lose momentum as the demand for goods delayed during the 2022 war shock is met while ramping up consumption of services at a rapid pace would be difficult because of supply constraints, the forecast said.
Non-market instruments and the soft monetary policy will continue to fuel investment in 2024 but the upward trend will fade amid a workforce shortage and the unfavorable business climate, BEROC noted.
Belarusian export growth will also slow down significantly in 2024, the analysts warned.
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