July 10, Pozirk. The Alaksandar Łukašenka regime would be hit hard by the closure of all cargo border crossings by Poland, Pavieł Łatuška, a Warsaw-based Belarusian opposition politician has told Pozirk.
Only then it would make concessions, he noted, commenting on a stand-off between Minsk and Moscow over an imprisoned Polish minority activist and illegal migration.
Łatuška noted that Belarusian pro-democracy forces have repeatedly conveyed to Polish officials the need for a tough approach.
His comments come amid reports that Poland suspended the operation of a major freight terminal and a truck border crossing in the last few weeks.
Warsaw could make cargo traffic conditional on the release of as many Belarusian political prisoners as possible, in addition to the de-escalation of the migration crisis, the politician said.
Minsk’s willingness to compromise largely depends on Poland’s determination and the position of China, which is interested on goods transit via Belarus and Poland, he said.
Łukašenka would suffer reputational and economic losses if the border crossings were closed, he added.
“Łukašenka is in a difficult situation. On the one hand, he is under pressure from China to explain what is going on at the border. On the other hand, there is an ultimatum from the Polish government, which is already being implemented,” Łatuška said.
Earlier today, the Belarusian State Customs Committee said Poland stopped processing heavy trucks coming from Belarus at the only checkpoint that handles cargo traffic between the countries.
A Polish customs official denied traffic suspension but admitted that it has slowed down.
Earlier, Poland suspended freight train traffic through the Małaszewicze terminal for 33 hours. Chinese transits account for the major proportion of the terminal operations.
Only two border crossings remain open at the Polish-Belarusian border: Terespol for passenger transport and Kukuryki for freight trains.
On June 22, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said that Warsaw might close the border with Belarus for cargo traffic.
Minsk can secure good-neighborly relations with Poland by releasing jailed journalist Andrzej Poczobut (Andrej Pačobut) and ending its security forces’ involvement in trafficking migrants through the border, he stressed.
In February 2023, shortly after Belarus had sentenced Poczobut, a Polish minority activist, to eight years in prison, Poland closed the Bobrowniki border crossing indefinitely.
Traffic through Kuźnica was suspended indefinitely in November 2021.
Warsaw, Riga and Vilnius call the migration crisis, which began in the spring of 2021, a “hybrid attack” orchestrated by Minsk and Moscow. Since the beginning of this year, EU countries have stopped more than 22,000 illegal entry attempts from Belarus. Poland alone has recorded nearly 20,000 attempts.
On June 6, the Polish General Command reported the death of Mateusz Sitek, a private of the 1st Warsaw Armored Brigade stabbed at the border with Belarus on May 28. The soldier was reportedly attacked by a person trying to cross the the border illegally with a large group of migrants.
On June 13, Poland established a buffer zone at the border with Belarus.
According to the Polish interior ministry, it has helped reduce incidents by about a third.
