Statkievič: Moscow would not attack if not for Belarus

March 17, BPN. Mikalaj Statkievič, an imprisoned prominent Belarusian politician, commented on the war in Ukraine in letters to his wife Maryna Adamovič from Detention Center No. 3 in Homiel’.

Adamovič received three letters from her husband after a long break and shared their content on her Facebook page.

“As far as I can understand from scraps of official news, the Ukrainian army retains control and the ability to resist, despite the lack of offensive weapons and the aggressor’s advantage in the air. Time will start working for Ukrainians once they stabilize the situation on all lines of engagement with the enemy. More international solidarity, military and technical assistance, more pressure on Moscow!” Statkievič wrote.

He believes that the Kremlin will either have to negotiate once the military situation stabilizes, or it will keep escalating the conflict, leading to mass civilian casualties. “I don’t know what will happen to Ukraine, but Moscow has lost Ukrainians forever,” he noted.

Citing the new wording of Article 18 of the Constitution (in effect since March 15), which says that Belarus rules out military aggression against other states from its territory, he stressed: “I doubt that Russian troops, aviation, and missile launchers are going to be withdrawn from Belarus after March 15. I think that aggression from our territory will continue. We are responsible for it and we cannot make amends by offering petty services to Moscow to arrange negotiations with Kyiv. For some reason, these services are called ‘mediation,’ but mediation implies at least some trust on both sides. Moscow would not have chosen aggression if it was not for the Belarusian outpost.”

In his recent letter dated March 10, Statkievič voiced his concern for Ukrainians: “Millions of people have found themselves in a dangerous situation. I don’t know anything about the losses, but it is obvious that a lot of people, including civilians, have died and keep dying. Belarus is involved in these deaths in the most direct way. I can understand very well emotions and accusations of Ukrainians against Belarusians on Facebook. We suffer because Ukrainians cannot appeal to Russians directly, since Facebook is shut down in Russia, while Russian social networks Odnoklassniki and VKontakte were blocked in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea,” said Statkievič.

Maryna Adamovič assumes that her husband received her letter where she mentioned Ukrainian and Belarusian Facebook users’ reaction to the war. “I feel optimistic because he makes quite accurate conclusions given the total lack of information,” she said.

Statkievič believes that Moscow’s strategic goal is “to turn Ukraine into a vassal pseudo-state subordinate to the will of the Kremlin,” following the example of Belarus. 

Mikalaj Statkievič was arrested in May 31, 2020 in the Cichanoŭski case. On December 14, 2021, judge Mikalaj Dolia sentenced him to 14 years in a maximum-security penal colony.

The defendants in the case were charged under a number of criminal articles, including organization of mass riots, inciting social hatred and discord, and obstructing the work of the Central Election Commission.