Pundit warns Russia may absorb Belarus’ economy

December 30, BPN. Minsk’s heavy dependence on Moscow poses a serious threat to the Belarusian economy, economic expert Jarasłaŭ Ramančuk told BPN.

Belarusian GDP dropped by 4.7 percent from January to November despite the projected growth of 2.9 percent, while inflation soared 12.4 percent against the projected 6 percent. Real disposable incomes fell by 3.9 percent instead of growing by 2 percent, official reports said.

The real scale of economic decline may be much worse than presented by the authorities, Ramančuk noted, adding that 2022 has seen the deepest recession in the past 28 years.

Authorities would not disclose statistical data related to the government’s budget, public debt, and foreign exchange reserves in order “not to be caught cheating and falsifying,” he added. “One can only guess the real state of affairs,” the expert said. “Manipulation of statistical data is a mechanism to zombify the population.”

“Those who thought that sanctions could force [Alaksandr] Łukašenka to negotiate with society underestimated the regime’s ability to develop cooperation with Russia,” Ramančuk said.

Yet some benefits of deep integration with Russia led to a very dangerous convergence of the monetary and tax systems. Eventually, it could allow Russia to absorb the Belarusian economy, something that Łukašenka has resisted all these years, Ramančuk said.