Łukašenka debunks own myth that Kyiv is under external administration
By Alaksandr Kłaskoŭski, BPN
Alaksandr Łukašenka on January 19 unexpectedly praised Ukraine for refusing to stage “provocations” against Belarus despite being encouraged to do so by Western neighbors. The Belarusian strongman made the remark, which does not fit in with Moscow’s propaganda narratives, at his meeting with Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister.
In the spirit of Kremlin’s propaganda
The chief of the Belarusian regime, his generals and media have portrayed Ukraine as an enemy directed by the United States, echoing the Kremlin’s narratives and expressing their own views largely based on conspiracy theories and cantankerous thinking.
In January last year, weeks before Russia’s new invasion of Ukraine, Łukašenka said that Kyiv’s behavior was unpredictable and dysfunctional at times, alleging that it was “under external administration.” He made it clear that Belarus should be prepared to repel an attack from its southern neighbor.
The Belarusian leader often reprises the Kremlin’s propaganda theme that Kyiv has been taking orders from Washington for many years. He said that even former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko would not respond to goodwill gestures from Moscow because he was “under external administration.”
Łukašenka’s recent acknowledgement that Kyiv refuses to stage provocations despite Western pressure conflicts with his claim that the Ukrainian leadership fully complies with Washington’s wishes.
Belarusian generals also portray Ukrainian officials as Washington’s aggressive puppets. Some of their accusations were far-fetched and preposterous. For instance, months after Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine from Belarus, one Belarusian official lashed out at Ukraine for destroying bridges and mining and building fortifications in its border areas with alleged hostile intentions toward Belarus. Naturally, Ukraine has beefed up its border security for fear of a new assault from Belarus.
Provocation claims
Łukašenka is known for his ability to change his rhetoric abruptly depending on the politics of the moment. His remark that Kyiv refuses to stage provocations comes three months after he had accused Kyiv of staging “regular provocations.”
In October, he accused Ukraine of deploying up to 15,000 troops at the border, building fortifications and firing positions, and conducting electronic reconnaissance. He mentioned only defensive measures. It would be reckless of Ukraine not to enhance defense capabilities after the invasion.
In December, Alaksandr Valfovič, state secretary of the Security Council, accused Kyiv of trying to provoke a regional conflict. The verbal attack followed the discovery of pieces of a surface-to-air missile in Belarus close to the border with Ukraine.
The missile could have been fired by Ukraine as its air defenses grappled with massive Russian air strikes. Clearly, it was not Kyiv’s intention to provoke Belarus in attacking Ukraine from the north. Belarusian officials just generate horror stories to justify their cooperation with the real aggressor.
In early January, Belarusian border guards reported “isolated instances of provocations” from the Ukrainian side, BPN reported on January 5. Ukrainian soldiers allegedly pointed weapons in the direction of Belarusian border guards and made offensive gestures.
A video circulated on the Internet showing a Ukrainian soldier making a throat-slitting gesture apparently toward Belarusian border guards. It is not a surprise that Ukrainians are angry at Belarusians for allowing Russian troops to attack their country.
Kyiv trying to steer clear of trouble
Attempts to portray Ukraine as a threat to Belarus have never been convincing. Any sensible person understands that Kyiv does not need a second front.
Most top-ranking Ukrainian officials are cautious not to anger Minsk. Few Ukrainian politicians criticize Łukašenka. Kyiv still maintains a diplomatic presence in Minsk.
The Ukrainian president has been reluctant to meet with Belarus’ opposition leader, Sviatłana Cichanoŭskaja. Reports have been coming in that Kyiv asked the European Union to leave Belarus out of its recent package of sanctions.
Łukašenka cannot get out of the mess he made for himself
It was not the first time that Łukašenka had to debunk a myth created by propaganda. It is easy to understand why he did it.
The Kremlin’s “special military operation” is not going according to plan. It is fraught with bad economic and political consequences for the Belarusian regime. This is the reason Łukašenka is reluctant to send Belarusian troops to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the European Union is working on a new package of sanctions against Russia and Belarus.
Łukašenka has somewhat toned down his rhetoric. He even offered Lavrov his services as peace broker. “We use any contacts that we occasionally have with the West and others to say that Russia has never been against peace. Please, let’s negotiate. We are ready to participate in it.”
He had arranged several rounds of negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv in Belarus weeks after the start of the new Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. However, he is no longer perceived as a neutral party because of his involvement in the aggression.
He may be unhappy to wear the co-aggressor label and looking for an opportunity to maneuver his way out of trouble. However, he is unable to play his own game now that he is fully dependent on Moscow.
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