Two lonely hearts meet: beleaguered Putin cannot exert much pressure on Łukašenka

By Alexander Friedman

Frequent meetings between the Belarusian and Russian leaders often attract much attention in the West and are surrounded by rumors of Belarus’ imminent entry into the war or annexation to Russia. Minsk and Moscow are doing their best to whip up hysteria, while aggressive rhetoric has become commonplace.

Pressure from Kremlin

Alaksandar Łukašenka created a stir on July 23 when he said during talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Wagner Group militants based in Belarus were asking him for permission “to go on a trip” to Warsaw and Rzeszów.

Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, concluded that the two leaders specifically met to discuss how to use the Wagner Group fighters relocated to Belarus.

ISW analysts noted that Putin keeps up pressure on the Belarusian ruler to step up integration within the two countries’ Union State and do more for Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Is Belarus’ entry into war important for Putin?

The Łukašenka regime has supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine by providing territory, infrastructure and ammunition for Russian troops. In the last few weeks Russia said it delivered tactical nuclear weapons to its ally. In addition, thousands of Wagner Group fighters have been reportedly relocated to Belarus after a failed mutiny.

Łukašenka has firmly decided against sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian forces for fear that the war may spill over into his country.

Although there is a widespread view in the West that Moscow keeps up pressure on him to contribute forces to the Russian war effort, it does not appear to be the case.

First, the Russian war is not popular in Belarus. Second, the Belarusian army, as it is, can hardly help Russia turn things around at the front. Finally, possible political turbulence in Belarus, Russia’s only fully-fledged ally, may unsettle Putin’s regime.

Moscow has succeeded in binding firmly Belarus to Russia and seems to be confident that it can secure Belarus’ deeper involvement in the war, when necessary.

Łukašenka stands to benefit politically from his intervention last month to persuade Yevgeny Prigozhin to call off his mercenary army’s march to Moscow. The Belarusian ruler may now have some room for maneuver, but he still lacks leverage as long as Russian troops remain in Belarus and he continues to rely heavily on Russian economic support.

During conversations with Putin, Łukašenka can give and defend his opinion, but the Russian president always the one who decides on matters of war and security.

Minsk and Moscow coordinating positions as usual

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, said that the two leaders discussed a wide range of issues, including the Wagner Group’s activity, economic matters and external threats. Although he did not mention the Ukraine war, the topic was presumably high on the agenda.

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the beleaguered Putin and Łukašenka face serious risks and an uncertain political and physical future.

They had many disagreements that seem to part of the past. The two men appear to enjoy rapport at the end of their political careers, and put on regular showy displays of understanding. Łukašenka is always acting cautiously, emphasizing Putin’s dominant role.

There is a widespread view that the two men hate and despise each other behind the façade of friendship and harmony.

No matter whether it is true, they have many things in common, including age, Soviet socialization, nostalgia for the Soviet empire, conspiracy thinking and political loneliness.

Their meetings have a significant therapeutic effect, especially for Putin. They enjoy exchanging opinions and coordinating positions. The Belarusian leader never misses a chance to ask for economic concessions for his regime. But their discussions do not make history.

Łukašenka’s recent visit to Russia was definitely overhyped. It did not produce big decisions, while the aggressive rhetoric has become commonplace. It was just another attempt to mislead and intimidate the West.