Ukrainian counteroffensive an alarming sign for Łukašenka – analyst

September 12, BPN. Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region is an alarming sign for Alaksandr Łukašenka, not only for the Kremlin, EAST Center research director Andrej Jelisiejeŭ told BPN.

He does not expect that officials Minsk “will try to seriously flirt with the West tomorrow.” There will be no turning point soon, but the situation can change in the event of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ further victorious actions and increasing advantage on the front, Jelisiejeŭ said. In this scenario, he added, “Minsk is likely to try to forecast the political consequences for Russia.”

“It is one thing if the Kremlin suddenly plans a change in domestic and foreign policy due to Ukraine’s military successes and the West’s economic measures. And another thing if the war eventually ends in an actual loss or a Pyrrhic victory for Moscow, but the Kremlin, with the help of violent propaganda, censorship and harassment, manages to ‘sell’ it to the populace as a limited success and preserve the domestic political situation,” the analyst continued.

In the latter case, he said, the position of Łukašenka and Belarus “is unlikely to change qualitatively.” From Jelisiejeŭ’s perspective, a more favorable outcome for Łukašenka would be the absence of a clear winner, with all parties significantly weakened, including the West.

If Moscow has a meaningful victory, it would be very difficult for the Łukašenka regime to evade an extremely tight integration with Russia, which is already going on, the analyst said.

Ukrainian forces recaptured Izium and Kupiansk over the weekend as part of a counteroffensive, dealing a painful blow to Russian occupying forces.